柠檬价暴涨，压力给到蜜雪冰城

Core Viewpoint - The surge in lemon prices reflects the challenges faced by the tea beverage industry, particularly for small and medium-sized brands that struggle with supply chain management and cost transfer capabilities [3][10][11]. Price Surge of Lemons - Lemon prices have skyrocketed, with wholesale prices increasing from 7.5 yuan per kilogram in mid-April to 26.88 yuan per kilogram by late June, marking a rise of over 250% [7]. - The price of yellow lemons has increased from 2.99 yuan for a two-piece pack last year to 7.99 yuan this year, with some consumers reporting prices as high as 12 yuan per kilogram [5][7]. Factors Contributing to Price Increase - Extreme weather conditions, such as frost in Turkey and drought in Spain, have led to reduced lemon supply globally [7]. - In China, the core production area of Sichuan Anyue has faced severe weather, resulting in an expected production decline of over 30% this year [7][8]. Impact on Tea Beverage Industry - The demand for lemons has surged by 200% among tea beverage shops as summer approaches, with brands like Mixue Ice City consuming over 50 kilograms of lemons daily per store [8]. - The increase in lemon prices has forced some small tea brands to raise prices, leading to a significant drop in sales [10]. Challenges for Franchisees - Franchisees of major brands like Mixue Ice City face pressure as lemon costs have risen to 20 yuan per kilogram, while the retail price of lemon water remains capped at 4 yuan per cup [11][13]. - Franchisees are unable to raise prices or remove lemon-based products due to strict regulations from the headquarters, leading to financial strain [24]. Market Dynamics - The market for lemon water is highly competitive, with other brands offering lower-priced alternatives, which could threaten the market share of Mixue Ice City if they raise prices [15]. - The psychological price point for consumers is around 4 yuan for lemon water, and any increase could lead to a loss of customer trust [15][19]. Future Outlook - The price of lemons is expected to stabilize around September to October 2025 when new crops from Sichuan and other regions become available [25].