关键数据表明我国经济已触底回升？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) serves as a critical indicator of economic performance, with China's PMI showing signs of recovery in June 2025, indicating a potential economic rebound despite ongoing external pressures [1][2][9]. Group 1: PMI Overview - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5]. - A PMI above 50% indicates economic expansion, while below 50% indicates contraction. The new orders index rose to 50.2%, entering expansion territory, which suggests a recovery in market demand [2][9]. - The PMI is a leading indicator that reflects economic trends 1-3 months in advance, making it a vital tool for monitoring economic dynamics [2][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating robust performance, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively, indicating challenges in these segments [6][9]. - Key components of the manufacturing PMI, including production index (51.0%) and new orders index (50.2%), were above the critical point, signaling increased production activity and improved market demand [6][9]. - The raw material inventory index was at 48.0%, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels, which may affect future production capabilities [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Policy Impact - The increase in new orders and overall PMI suggests that China's economic stimulus policies are beginning to take effect, helping to mitigate the impact of external trade pressures [9]. - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and facilitate a sustained economic recovery [9].