【广发宏观团队】反内卷的三个意义

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significance of "anti-involution" in three aspects: breaking the "prisoner's dilemma," improving the supply-demand ratio, and ending "race to the bottom" competition [3][4][5] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide local governments and enterprises to adopt correct performance views, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and enhance industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions [2][21] - The current "anti-involution" differs from the 2016 supply-side structural reform, focusing more on addressing low-price disorderly competition rather than merely resolving excess capacity [21][24] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, noting that A-shares and U.S. stocks performed well, while European and Japanese stocks experienced corrections [6][7] - Commodity prices are returning to supply-demand fundamentals, with oil rebounding and industrial metals showing initial signs of recovery due to "anti-involution" policies [7][27] - The article highlights the importance of fiscal spending in countering the central bank's significant net withdrawal, maintaining liquidity in the market [16][17] Group 3 - The article outlines the expected GDP growth rates, with actual and nominal GDP projected to be 5.12% and 3.93% respectively for July [14] - It mentions the anticipated recovery in industrial production, driven by a low base effect, with expectations of a slight increase to 5.25% [14] - The article also notes the divergence in funding availability between construction and non-construction projects, with a focus on the government's support for infrastructure projects [18][19] Group 4 - The article indicates that the industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some sectors showing recovery while others remain weak [27][28] - It highlights the ongoing challenges in the construction sector, particularly in housing, where funding availability is declining [19][20] - The article discusses the government's efforts to support key construction projects, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure investment for economic recovery [20][18]