Group 1: Major Asset & Overseas Events & Data - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.3% [2][3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 6.0 basis points to 4.4% [2][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1701 [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to $3332.5 per ounce [2][3][31] Group 2: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded market expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [51][52] - The primary driver of job growth was an increase in state and local government employment [51] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3% [51] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Risks - The 90-day "tariff suspension" on US imports is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about potential tariff increases [41][42] - Approximately 20 countries with slow negotiation progress may see the restoration of initial tariff rates unless recognized as "good faith negotiators" [41] - Vietnam is facing a potential 20% tariff on its goods, with a 40% tariff on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [41][42] Group 4: Treasury Auction Demand - The demand for US Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26 for the 4-week bill, indicating strong interest [44][45] - Indirect bids accounted for 78.6% of the total, marking a recent high [44][45] Group 5: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the summer, suggesting that the Fed would have lowered rates sooner without the tariff policies [47][49] - Some Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, focusing on short-term inflation impacts [47][49]
海外高频 | 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险（申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2025-07-06 14:35