深度 | 稳定币浪潮，如何影响汇率？【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent regulatory developments in stablecoins in the US and Hong Kong have made them a market focus, with the top five stablecoins experiencing a 45% increase in market capitalization over the past year, raising questions about their impact on exchange rates [1][4][11] Group 2 - Stablecoins transmit their value stability through asset anchoring, primarily including off-chain asset-backed, on-chain asset-backed, and algorithmic types, with USDT and USDC being the most prominent [1][4][6] - The issuance mechanism of USDT involves customers depositing USD, after which an equivalent amount of USDT is issued, with the cash used to purchase high liquidity assets to ensure redemption [1][4][6] - The demand for USD stablecoins reduces transaction costs and increases demand for USD, supporting the USD index, while potentially leading to depreciation and capital outflow in weaker currency countries [1][6][9] Group 3 - Stablecoins act as a "shot in the arm" for local currencies by lowering transaction costs, with the average cost of remitting $200 globally being 6.4%, compared to 0.5%-3% for stablecoins, thus increasing demand for USD in trade settlements [2][11] - However, stablecoins do not resolve the fundamental issues of the USD system and carry underlying asset risks, with the potential for being replaced by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [2][11][14] Group 4 - For developing countries, stablecoins pegged to major currencies like the USD may replace local currencies, leading to a loss of monetary sovereignty, as approximately 70% of stablecoin users prefer not to hold local currency [3][16][18] - The depreciation of local currencies, such as Argentina and Brazil, has led to increased reliance on cryptocurrencies, with significant currency devaluations of 9.5% and 12.2% respectively in early 2024 [3][16] Group 5 - The global landscape for digital currencies is evolving with a dual approach, where stablecoins are increasingly regulated while CBDCs are still in pilot phases, with China promoting the digital RMB [21][23] - Hong Kong has taken the lead in establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which may serve as a policy testing ground for their development [24]