Wind万得·2025-07-06 22:31Core Viewpoints - The current market is likely in the first phase of a "anti-involution" trend, driven by policy catalysts and expectations for improvement in supply and demand [3][7]. Focus Review - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity. This is expected to positively impact industries with severe low-price competition, such as the real estate and new energy sectors [3]. - The photovoltaic industry, characterized by severe overcapacity and widespread losses, is likely to be among the first to undergo supply-side reforms [3]. Equity Market - Market conditions are favorable for upward movement due to ample liquidity, with a focus on sectors with strong fundamentals such as overseas computing power and solid-state batteries [5]. - Structural market trends are expected to continue, with a focus on growth attributes and themes like new technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]. - The "anti-involution" trend is driving strength in cyclical sectors, with steel and building materials leading the market rebound [15]. Industry Research - The military industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to geopolitical conflicts and policy support, with a recommendation for a dual strategy of active and passive investment [12]. - The Hong Kong stock market shows significant long-term allocation value, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, supported by low valuations and improving earnings [13]. - The cyclical sectors are benefiting from the "anti-involution" theme, with strong performance in steel and construction materials [15]. Macro and Fixed Income - The funding environment is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with reduced upward pressure on funding rates despite central bank warnings against fund transfer risks [21]. - A focus on a "monetary-credit" framework is suggested for understanding macro market trends, with an emphasis on a barbell strategy of dividends and technology in the A-share market [22]. Asset Allocation - Growth-style assets are highlighted as the main allocation direction, with structural opportunities in technology, new consumption, and high-dividend sectors [25][26].