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【有色】6月电解铜产量环比下降0.3%、同比增长13%——铜行业周报（20250630-20250704）（王招华/方驭涛）
光大证券研究·2025-07-06 13:24

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a continued weakening in demand for copper, with potential risks of short squeezes persisting in the market, suggesting that while copper prices may remain strong in the short term, they could revert to a more volatile state after any short squeeze ends [3]. Inventory - As of July 4, 2025, domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.3%, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.1% [4]. - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory reached 666,000 tons, up 6.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 381,000 tons as of June 30, 2025, down 4.1% [4]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 260 yuan/ton this week [5]. - In March 2025, China's refined copper output was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - Global refined copper output in April 2025 was 1.969 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of July 4, 2025, was -43.31 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 USD/ton from June 27, 2025, but still at a low level since September 2007 [6]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 67.81% as of July 3, 2025, with cables accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [7]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 1.9%, 4.6%, and 12.8% from July to September 2025 [7]. - The operating rate for brass rods was 50.6% in May 2025, down 4.4 percentage points month-on-month but up 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of July 4, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 1.3% to 216,000 lots, placing it at the 64th percentile since 1995 [8]. - Non-commercial net long positions on COMEX rose by 23.7% to 29,000 lots, also at the 64th percentile since 1990 [8].