中金：特朗普《大美丽法案》的内容及影响

Core Viewpoint - The "Great Beautiful Act" signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, fulfills his campaign promise of core tax cuts, comprising five main parts: corporate tax cuts, individual and family tax cuts, reduction of clean energy subsidies, cuts to Medicaid, and reductions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Contents of the "Great Beautiful Act" - The act aims to make corporate and family tax cuts permanent, adhering to the Republican principle of a "small government" by cutting social welfare expenditures [3]. - Key components include: - Corporate tax incentives such as full depreciation on equipment and immediate deduction for R&D expenses, effective from 2025 [4]. - Permanent extension of lower personal income tax rates and an increase in standard deduction by $750 [5]. - Adjustments to state and local tax (SALT) deductions, raising the cap to $40,000 from 2025 to 2029, reverting to $10,000 in 2030 [6]. 2. Economic Stimulus Effects - The act is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $1.3 trillion over the next decade, with a deficit rate around 6% [11][14]. - It is estimated that the act will boost GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and raise inflation by no more than 0.15 percentage points [11][12]. 3. Cuts to Clean Energy Subsidies - The act terminates several clean energy tax credits, including the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, effective September 30, 2025 [7]. - It imposes stricter regulations on foreign entities involved in critical materials supply, enhancing national security in the energy sector [7]. 4. Medicaid Cuts - The act significantly tightens Medicaid eligibility, requiring able-bodied adults to complete at least 80 hours of work or community service monthly to maintain coverage [8]. - These reforms are expected to reduce federal spending by approximately $1 trillion over the next decade, potentially affecting 11.8 million individuals [8]. 5. SNAP Reductions - The act implements reforms to reduce SNAP expenditures, including increasing state responsibilities for administrative costs and adjusting benefit distribution mechanisms [9]. - It is projected to cut SNAP spending by about $186 billion over the next decade, impacting over 40 million beneficiaries [9]. 6. Increase in Debt Ceiling - The act raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing for increased government borrowing [10].