中金 | 中报预览：哪些公司业绩有望超预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming mid-year earnings reports for A-share listed companies, highlighting the expected performance trends and structural insights amid external uncertainties and a moderate domestic economic recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Preview - A-share companies are expected to disclose mid-year earnings forecasts densely before July 15, with concentrated reporting by the end of August [1]. - The anticipated year-on-year growth rate for A-share earnings in mid-2025 may slow compared to the first quarter, with better performance expected in the second half of the year [1]. - Domestic consumption showed a quick recovery in the second quarter, with retail sales growth of 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance Insights - Non-financial sectors are expected to face performance pressures due to price declines, particularly in the upstream energy and materials industries, while the gold sector may perform relatively well due to rising prices driven by geopolitical tensions [2][3]. - The consumer sector is anticipated to show a mixed performance, with areas benefiting from policies like "old-for-new" exchanges expected to outperform, while overall demand remains to be stimulated [2][3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to maintain high growth in certain areas, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, supported by increased capital expenditure [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on structural highlights during the earnings disclosure period, such as the gold sector, consumer sectors benefiting from policy support, and technology hardware [4]. - High-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, such as the AI industry and sectors with strong overseas production capacity, should be prioritized [4]. - Industries that achieve supply-side clearing in a moderately recovering environment, including industrial metals and lithium batteries, are also highlighted as potential investment areas [4].