车中旭霞·2025-07-07 00:55Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from product definition to functional realization and commercialization, with a focus on the optimization and coupling of hardware and software for future iterations [2]. Group 1: Industry Development - Humanoid robots have completed the basic functionality phase, but there is still room for improvement before large-scale commercial and household applications can be realized [2]. - The future iterations will focus on hardware aspects such as high load capacity, lightweight design, high heat dissipation, low energy consumption, stability, flexibility, and cost reduction [2]. Group 2: Gearbox Technology - The current humanoid robot joint modules primarily use planetary and harmonic gearbox solutions, each with its advantages and disadvantages [78]. - Planetary gearboxes are simple and cost-effective but have high backlash that affects precision, while harmonic gearboxes offer high precision but have limitations in high-load scenarios due to material fatigue [78][94]. - The cycloidal gearbox is expected to be a new direction for humanoid robot applications, combining precision and load capacity advantages [78][95]. Group 3: Market Potential - The market for new cycloidal gearboxes in humanoid robots is projected to exceed 14 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing demand for humanoid robots [6][100]. - The global market for cycloidal gearboxes, excluding humanoid robots, is expected to reach 2.36 billion USD by 2029, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [6][100]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The precision gearbox market is currently dominated by foreign brands, particularly Japanese companies, which hold significant market shares in harmonic and RV gearboxes [69][71]. - Domestic players are gradually increasing their market share in the harmonic gearbox segment, with companies like Lide Harmonic leading with a 25% market share [74]. - The cycloidal gearbox market has high barriers to entry due to complex design and manufacturing processes, which may favor established players with strong engineering capabilities [62][67].