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不惧“关税大限”冲击,投资者纷纷押注市场“波动不大”
华尔街见闻·2025-07-07 05:00

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market appears calm despite the impending uncertainty surrounding new tariffs set to be implemented by the U.S. government, with investors showing optimism and engaging in buying behavior [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. government plans to notify countries about new tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, effective from August 1, following a lack of trade agreement [2]. - Despite the increased tariff ceiling of 70%, which is significantly higher than the previously announced 50%, global markets have reacted with relative calm, as indicated by the MSCI global index reaching a peak and the S&P 500 hitting a historical high [3]. - Large speculative investors are reportedly buying into U.S. financial stocks at the highest levels seen in nearly a decade, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - Market participants believe there is enough "flexibility" regarding the deadline, leading to a perception that the worst-case scenario is no longer a concern [4]. - The behavior of investors indicates lingering optimism, although there are warnings about persistent pessimism that could catch many off guard [5]. - The options market shows signs of complacency, with traders underestimating potential volatility around the July 9 deadline, as indicated by low pricing for expected fluctuations in the European Stoxx 50 index [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Interest Rates - The recent tax and spending bill signed into law has led to celebrations in the stock market, as it makes the 2017 tax cuts permanent, but raises concerns among bond investors about increasing the national debt by over $3 trillion [10][11]. - Tariff-related inflation risks are putting pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations, with traders no longer anticipating a rate cut this month [12]. - The dollar's status as a safe haven is being challenged by the tariff policies, with the dollar index experiencing its worst performance since 1973, down approximately 11% this year [13].