Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires dropping by 7.7 percentage points to 9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2][29] - The national grinding operating rate for cement is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year, but overall demand remains subdued [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly declined, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year [2][53] - The freight volume related to domestic demand shows a slight increase, while port cargo throughput related to exports has decreased by 3% [2][62] - Travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% year-on-year [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork prices down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices show a slight increase, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in travel [2][74] - Container shipping prices have declined, with the CCFI composite index down by 1.9% [2][92]
国内高频 | 出行强度保持高位(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观·2025-07-07 08:27