研报 | 3Q25新旧世代DRAM交替，合约价走势分化，Consumer DDR4将季增逾40%

Core Viewpoint - The shift in production capacity by major DRAM manufacturers towards high-end products and the end-of-life (EOL) announcements for older generation products like DDR4 and LPDDR4X are driving a significant increase in DRAM prices, with expectations of a 10% to 15% increase in conventional DRAM prices in Q3 2025, and a 15% to 20% increase when including HBM [1][4]. Summary by Category DRAM Price Trends - The demand for DDR4 remains strong, leading to a projected price increase of 40% to 45% for consumer DDR4 in Q3 2025 due to supply constraints and prioritization of server needs [4][5]. - Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, while HBM prices may increase by 15% to 20% [2][4]. PC DRAM Market - The price of PC DRAM is anticipated to increase by 8% to 13% in Q3 2025, driven by heightened demand and supply limitations as manufacturers shift focus to server DRAM [5]. - The EOL policy for DDR4 is causing a supply squeeze, particularly affecting consumer applications [5]. Server DRAM Market - The demand for DDR5 is strengthening due to data center expansions, while DDR4 is experiencing preemptive stockpiling ahead of its EOL [5]. - Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by 3% to 8% in Q3 2025, supported by new platform deployments and AI server requirements [5]. Mobile DRAM Market - LPDDR4X prices are projected to increase by 23% to 28% in Q3 2025 due to rising demand and supply reductions from major manufacturers [6]. - LPDDR5X prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% as a result of seasonal demand [6]. Graphics DRAM Market - GDDR6 is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases in Q3 2025, while GDDR7 is being introduced to meet new GPU demands [6].