三星半导体，颓势不止

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is facing significant challenges in its semiconductor division, particularly with its HBM3E chips, which are crucial for AI servers, as it struggles to secure orders amid competition and trade policy issues [1][2][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Challenges - Samsung's operating profit has decreased by 15% to 5.5 trillion KRW (approximately 3.7 billion USD), marking the lowest level in six quarters, primarily due to issues in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The delay in certification of Samsung's 12-layer HBM3E chips by NVIDIA is critical, as competitors like SK Hynix and Micron have already secured orders, potentially ceding market share to them [2]. - The U.S. trade policies are exacerbating Samsung's situation, with 33% of its HBM revenue coming from China, and new export rules limiting advanced chip sales to that market [2][3]. Group 2: Broader Business Impacts - Samsung's smartphone, TV, and display businesses are also affected by rising logistics costs and potential 25% tariffs on non-U.S. manufactured smartphones, which could further squeeze profit margins [3]. - The loss of a significant client, Google, to TSMC in the foundry business has negatively impacted Samsung's ambitions in the AI chip sector [3]. Group 3: Potential Solutions - Samsung plans to mass-produce its sixth-generation 10nm DRAM by the end of 2025, which could provide an advantage in the HBM4 and DDR5 markets critical for AI and high-performance computing [5]. - A potential partnership with Qualcomm to use Samsung's 2nm process technology in future chips could stabilize Samsung's foundry losses and enhance its credibility in AI chips [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Samsung's stock has risen by 19% year-to-date, but this is below the 27% increase of the Korean Composite Stock Price Index, indicating that the market may not fully account for long-term potential [7]. - Key questions remain regarding whether Samsung can secure NVIDIA's HBM3E orders by year-end and if the new DRAM and foundry orders can offset trade-related challenges [7].