复盘国内外AI，兼论恒生科技

Market Overview - After April 7, both the US and Chinese stock markets experienced a rally, with the Nasdaq rising by 32.9%, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) increasing by 11.57%, and the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 12.16% [1] AI Chip Market Dynamics - The focus has shifted from training GPUs to AI inference ASIC chips, driven by a slowdown in the iteration of foundational models under the transformer architecture [3][5] - The rental prices for training chips like H100 and H200 have declined since February, influenced by the industry's pivot towards reinforcement learning (RL) [5][6] - The upcoming GPT-5 model is expected to emphasize RL, which has a smaller demand compared to the pre-training phase [5] Data Source Considerations - A significant portion of the training data for GPT-5 is synthetic, raising concerns about the quality and sourcing of training data for future models [6] - The competition in the coding domain, particularly between Claude4 and Cursor, highlights the necessity for models to specialize in industry-specific data to maintain value [6] Token Usage Growth - Microsoft reported a token volume exceeding 100 trillion in Q1 2025, a fivefold increase year-on-year, while Google's monthly token processing surged from 9.7 trillion to 480 trillion, a growth of approximately 50 times [7] - Domestic AI models, such as Doubao, saw daily token usage exceed 16.4 trillion in May, marking a growth of over 4 times compared to the end of 2024 [7] ASIC Chip Outlook - The current market environment favors the development of inference ASIC chips, as existing models are sufficiently accurate for application [8][9] - The anticipated return of ASIC chips in Q3 is expected to alleviate supply issues faced in the first two quarters [9][10] - The overall sentiment towards the Hang Seng Tech Index is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a rebound in capital expenditures (capex) [10] Future Projections - The ASIC chip market is projected to see significant growth from 2025 to 2027, coinciding with the next major architectural shift in foundational models [10] - Companies like Microsoft and Amazon are expected to continue their ASIC chip design efforts, with no immediate acknowledgment of failures in early generations [10]