一顿折腾猛如虎，特朗普终究逃不过“通胀化债”？

Group 1 - The article discusses the likelihood of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) scenario regarding tariff negotiations, suggesting that the probability of further tariff escalation is low and that a delay in negotiations is more likely [1][2][5] - It highlights the current market's optimistic pricing, which may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy's performance in the upcoming year [1][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of employment data and its implications for interest rate expectations, noting that the recent job growth figures may not be as strong as they appear due to significant contributions from government employment [6][7][9] Group 2 - The article outlines the current U.S. employment situation, indicating that while the June non-farm payrolls showed a gain of 147,000 jobs, a substantial portion came from government sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [7][9][11] - It discusses the potential economic implications of Trump's policies, suggesting that they may lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, particularly with the anticipated combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [16][17][18] - The article presents an investment strategy in light of the expected economic conditions, recommending a diversified approach with a focus on strong equities, gold, and virtual assets while being cautious of potential market corrections [20][21][28]