6月全球投资十大主线

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of global asset classes in June, with global stocks leading at 4.40%, followed by commodities at 3.52%, and global bonds at 1.89%, while the US dollar showed a decline of 2.47% [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In June, global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 4.40% [2]. - Commodities followed with a return of 3.52%, while global bonds returned 1.89% [2]. - The US dollar experienced a decline of 2.47%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Volatility - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil trade [4][12]. - In June, oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions but quickly retreated as concerns over supply disruptions eased [4][12]. Group 3: US Market Dynamics - The divergence between the performance of the seven major US tech stocks and the 2-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to expectations of interest rate cuts [4][14]. - The decline in the 2-year Treasury yield, previously interpreted as a recession signal, did not deter the rise of tech stocks in June [4][14]. Group 4: Emerging Market Strategies - A successful arbitrage strategy involving dollar financing and investment in six emerging market currencies yielded a return of 8% since 2025, outperforming similar strategies using yen or euro financing [4][17]. - The reduced correlation between the dollar and the S&P 500 index enhances the attractiveness of the dollar for arbitrage trading [4][17]. Group 5: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to emerging markets, stocks, energy, banks, and communications, while reducing exposure to euros, utilities, cash, and bonds [4][21]. - The survey indicates a significant overweight in eurozone and emerging market assets compared to US dollar assets [4][21]. Group 6: Money Market Fund Growth - The total assets under management in US money market funds reached a record high of $7 trillion in 2025, driven by their attractive yields and investor preference for safety amid market uncertainties [4][26]. - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, money market funds maintained yields around 4%, appealing to risk-averse investors [4][26]. Group 7: Dollar Index and Foreign Investment - The dollar index serves as a leading indicator for net foreign investment in US equities, with a notable correlation observed over a 12-month period [4][29]. - An increase in the dollar index typically leads to higher foreign capital inflows into US assets [4][29]. Group 8: Correlation Between Dollar and Oil - The correlation between oil prices and the dollar index has shifted from negative to positive over the past two decades, reflecting changes in global economic dynamics and energy demand [4][32]. Group 9: Historical Gold-Oil Ratio - The historical analysis of the gold-oil ratio from 1920 to 2025 shows a significant decline in its central tendency post-1970s, attributed to the decoupling of the dollar from gold and the strengthening of oil's financial attributes [4][37]. Group 10: Currency Sensitivity to Oil Prices - The Indian rupee's performance is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with rising oil prices leading to increased import costs and inflationary pressures [4][40]. - The Reserve Bank of India may intervene in the forex market to stabilize the rupee amid these external pressures [4][40]. Group 11: New Taiwan Dollar Hedging Costs - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced an 11% appreciation in Q2 2025, leading to significant foreign exchange losses for Taiwanese life insurers [4][42]. - The hedging costs for the New Taiwan Dollar reached nearly 15%, reflecting heightened market volatility and increased demand for currency protection [4][42].