WEI指数仍在较高位置——每周经济观察第27期

Group 1: Economic Trends - Service consumption shows an upward trend with domestic flight executions increasing to 14,300 flights in the first five days of July, up 4% year-on-year compared to 12,800 flights in June, which was up 0.8% year-on-year [1][10] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.8% in the week of June 29, with a three-week average of 4.3%, compared to 4.93% in May [1][11] - Prices in coal and real estate infrastructure sectors have risen due to "anti-involution" trends, with prices for Shanxi-produced thermal coal increasing by 0.5%, rebar prices in Shanghai up by 2.9%, and iron ore price index rising by 2% [1][32] Group 2: Downward Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains at a high level at 6% as of June 29, down 1.63 points from 7.63% on June 22, indicating a general decline in indicators such as commodity housing transaction area and coal throughput [2][7] - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline, with a 30% year-on-year drop in housing transaction area in 67 cities in the first four days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [2][10] - Foreign trade shows a decline, with container throughput at domestic ports dropping to a 3.1% year-on-year decrease as of June 29, down from 4.3% the previous week [2][18] Group 3: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of new special bonds has surpassed half of the annual target, with 2.2 trillion yuan issued by June 30, representing a 50.5% progress compared to 38.5% in the same period last year [3][38] - Interest rates have decreased post-half-year, with DR001 at 1.3140%, DR007 at 1.4222%, and R007 at 1.4881%, showing declines of -5.43bps, -27.46bps, and -43.2bps respectively from June 27 [3][46] Group 4: Production and Consumption - The construction sector shows fluctuations in asphalt and cement dispatch rates, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.7%, up 6.5% year-on-year, while cement dispatch rates are at 40.8%, slightly down from the previous week [14][17] - Industrial production indicators such as coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port have shown a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in early July, maintaining stability compared to June [14][18] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic commodity price indices have shown mixed trends, with the BPI down by 0.5% while the RJ/CRB commodity price index increased by 0.6% [31][37] - Prices for major commodities like copper, gold, and oil have risen, with COMEX gold at $3,332.5 per ounce, up 1.9%, and Brent crude oil at $68.3 per barrel, up 0.8% [31][37]