马斯克不是第一个想组“美国党”的人，他们都去哪儿了？

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has established the "American Party" with the clear goal of opposing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and creating a genuine third party to influence politics, encouraging supporters to break free from the two-party system [3][4]. Group 1: Political Landscape and Challenges - The entrenched two-party system in the U.S. poses significant challenges for Musk, as many doubt his ability to disrupt this established order [4][12]. - Musk's initial targets are modest, aiming for a few Senate and House seats that could sway policy decisions, especially in a closely divided Congress [6][12]. - Historical attempts at third parties in the U.S. have often ended in failure, with many such parties dissolving or merging back into the two main parties after brief successes [7][10][11]. Group 2: Historical Context of Third Parties - The original "American Party," known as the "Know Nothing Party," emerged in the 1840s, gaining significant political traction before fading away [9][10]. - The "American Independent Party," founded in 1969 by George Wallace, aimed to disrupt the political landscape but ultimately failed to maintain influence [10][11]. - The historical pattern shows that third parties often achieve temporary success but struggle to sustain their presence in the long term [11][12]. Group 3: Structural and Financial Barriers - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. inherently favors two parties, making it difficult for third parties to gain traction [12][13]. - Financial resources are crucial, and Musk's substantial investment of $290 million for the 2024 election may not be sufficient compared to the financial demands of national campaigns [12][13]. - The existing political infrastructure and grassroots organizations of the two main parties create formidable barriers for any new party attempting to establish itself [12][13]. Group 4: Current Political Dynamics - Despite dissatisfaction with the two-party system, new political movements often find their ideas absorbed by the existing parties, as seen with Trump's rise within the Republican Party [14][15]. - Musk's lack of clear, appealing political proposals may hinder his ability to attract both voters and politicians from the established parties [15]. - Previous political investments by Musk, such as funding a judicial election in Wisconsin, resulted in failure, indicating challenges in translating financial resources into political influence [15].