中金2025下半年展望 | 生物医药:创新驱动,蓝筹稳健
中金点睛·2025-07-07 23:31

Investment Background - Domestic demand is currently insufficient, with the medical insurance revenue-expenditure gap widening, maintaining a "tight balance" state [11] - Tariff conflicts create uncertainty for external demand, particularly influenced by US-China trade tensions [11] - Expectations for liquidity are improving, with a trend towards looser monetary policy globally [12] - The rise of AI applications is generating renewed interest in technological advancements within the medical field [12] Investment Strategy - The "barbell investment strategy" remains applicable for the second half of 2025, focusing on stable dividend blue-chip stocks and capitalizing on investment windows around ASCO/ESMO academic conferences for innovative drugs [3][4] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug industry is showing clear investment trends, with potential opportunities along the industrial chain as China transitions from following innovation to gradual innovation, gaining international competitiveness [3][17] - Short-term catalysts include significant data disclosures and business development announcements around major academic conferences [3][27] - The collaboration with multinational corporations (MNCs) is becoming a crucial catalyst for competitive clinical data [3][21] Traditional Blue-Chip Stocks - Traditional blue-chip assets are recommended for stable allocation due to challenges in the pharmaceutical sector, including cost control and corruption issues [3][40] - Positive changes and investment highlights are expected in traditional blue-chip stocks in 2025, driven by mergers and acquisitions and innovation direction transformations [3][40] Medical Devices - The medical device sector is entering a new growth phase after a price base clearance period, with IVD devices showing global growth potential despite domestic cost control pressures [4][60] - The upcoming government policies and market demand are expected to support the recovery of the medical device industry [48][51] Healthcare Services - The core issue in healthcare services is the payment contradiction, with a pressing need for increased funding from commercial insurance to support innovative drug development [4][65] - The integration of "medicine + drugs + insurance" is anticipated to drive new growth in domestic demand [4][65] Investment Opportunities - The innovative drug sector is expected to see a surge in business development projects due to the high quality of research and development outcomes, with a focus on ADC, PD-(L)1 dual antibodies, and CAR-T technologies [29][30] - The CDMO sector is experiencing a positive trend in orders, with strong resilience in gross margins among leading companies [35][39] Digital Health - The digital health sector is showing robust fundamentals, with a relatively stable competitive landscape and growth rates exceeding industry averages [64] - The AI wave is enhancing the valuation of digital health companies, with increased attention on AI applications in healthcare [64]