【石油化工】25H1原油市场波动剧烈，关注地缘政治和OPEC+增产进展——行业周报第410期（0630—0706）（赵乃迪等）

Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to experience a downward trend in 2025H1 due to a combination of weakened demand expectations and OPEC+ increasing production, while geopolitical events will cause significant volatility in oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - In 2025H1, oil prices are projected to decline as demand expectations decrease and OPEC+ accelerates production, with geopolitical events causing sharp fluctuations [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, reflecting declines of 11.0% and 9.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The prolonged nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding the Iran-Israel ceasefire are expected to continue impacting oil prices due to geopolitical risks [3]. - The failure of nuclear negotiations has led to increased tensions in the Middle East, which may further exacerbate geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [3]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Supply - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, contributing to a forecasted global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day [4]. - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to contribute 1.4 million barrels per day to the increase [4]. Group 4: Demand Expectations - The IEA has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day, primarily due to weak demand from the US and China [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of clean energy technologies are expected to suppress long-term oil demand growth [5]. Group 5: Strategic Responses from Major Oil Companies - Major oil companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production to counter external uncertainties [5]. - The planned growth in oil and gas equivalent production for the three major oil companies is 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively for 2025 [5].