【农林牧渔】5月生猪出栏增量，行业维持微利——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250630-20250706）（李晓渊）

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of the current state of the pig farming industry, including supply, prices, and profitability, while also discussing the trends in related agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybean meal [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming Industry Analysis - The breeding sow inventory slightly increased to 40.42 million heads by the end of May 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 0.1% and a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [3]. - In May, the slaughter volume of pigs reached 32.16 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The average weight of slaughtered pigs peaked at over 92 kg before starting to decline [3]. - The average price of live pigs in May dropped slightly to 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year. The average price for piglets was 39.14 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [3]. - Profitability in the industry continued to narrow, with average profits for large-scale farms dropping to 49 yuan per pig in May from 86 yuan in April, while smallholders saw profits decrease to 21 yuan per pig from 50 yuan [3]. Group 2: Recent Price Trends - As of July 4, the national average price for live pigs was 15.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.28%. The average price for piglets was 31.33 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.85% [4]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs this week was 128.64 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg. The national frozen product inventory rate rose to 14.23%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points [4]. - The price increase was attributed to supply constraints due to heavy rainfall in southern regions and a seasonal reduction in supply, although the price growth is expected to slow as slaughterhouses adjust their output [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - As of July 4, the average spot price for corn was 2436.27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.22%. Soybean meal averaged 2916.29 yuan/ton, up 0.46%, and wheat averaged 2451.06 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [5]. - Domestic corn prices showed slight fluctuations, with prices in North China affected by news of imported corn auctions, while supply tightened in Northeast China due to ongoing outflows [5]. - The soybean meal market experienced adjustments, with increased supply from the U.S. and Brazil, while demand from end markets led to higher inventory levels at oil mills [6]. Group 4: Natural Rubber Price Trends - As of July 4, domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 14,075 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. Supply constraints in Southeast Asia due to ongoing rainy conditions have limited significant increases in supply [7]. - The inventory of rubber in Qingdao increased to 624,700 tons, with general trade inventory at 527,600 tons, up by 15,400 tons week-on-week [7].