国泰海通｜策略：“反内卷”政策加码，科技主题轮动加速

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat has shown signs of recovery, with strong performance in electronic cloth and anti-involution themes, while PCB and performance pre-increase themes remain robust. Attention should be paid to technology and supply-demand improvement directions [1] Group 1: Trading Heat Recovery - The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 507 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.63%. Since June, the overall trading heat of themes has rebounded [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with solid-state batteries and cross-border payment themes experiencing pullbacks, while anti-involution related sectors such as steel and photovoltaics lead the gains [1] - Bank stocks have seen net inflows, while themes related to losses and small-cap stocks have experienced significant net outflows [1] Group 2: Theme Summaries Theme 1: Production Restriction and Price Stabilization - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant increase in capacity and installation, but prices have dropped sharply. Steel prices and raw material prices have weakened due to severe supply-demand imbalances [2] - Recommendations include focusing on the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, as well as sectors like steel and pig farming where supply-side improvement expectations are rising [2] Theme 2: Low-altitude Economy - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on planning, airworthiness certification, market regulation, and flight operation supervision [2] - The establishment of non-restricted airspace opens physical space for low-altitude economic development, while accelerated airworthiness certification enhances operational space [2] - Recommendations include companies involved in core components of low-altitude flying vehicles and those providing low-altitude services such as air traffic management and infrastructure [2] Theme 3: AI New Infrastructure - Overseas cloud computing leaders have revised their capital expenditure expectations upward, while domestic intelligent computing center investments continue to progress [3] - Microsoft reported a revenue of 70.1 billion USD and a net profit of 25.82 billion USD for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Azure cloud business growth rate is expected to reach 34%-35% [3] - Recommendations include companies benefiting from increased capital expenditure expectations of overseas cloud vendors and those in the domestic computing industry chain [3] Theme 4: Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee highlighted the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the enhancement of independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [3] - The marine production value exceeds 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP. Marine ship engineering, marine equipment, marine power, and marine tourism are leading in growth [3] - Recommendations include investments in offshore wind power, oil and gas extraction, and communication power infrastructure, as well as high-end marine equipment and deep-sea detection equipment [3]