国泰海通｜交运：Q2业绩同比改善，暑运迎来首个高峰

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in Q2, with a projected 7% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and stable domestic ticket prices [1][3][4] - The summer travel season is anticipated to reach its first peak, driven by school holidays, leading to an optimistic supply-demand outlook and an expected rise in both passenger load factor and ticket prices [1][4] - The decline in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year in July is expected to positively impact profitability during the summer travel period, as the industry enters a low supply growth era [1][3] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - OPEC+ is set to continue increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, which is expected to gradually reflect in the oil shipping demand and performance in the second half of the year [2][4] - The average TCE for VLCC in Q2 is estimated at $42,000, showing a significant improvement compared to Q1, indicating a recovery in the oil shipping sector [3][4] - The oil shipping industry is expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand and improved market conditions, alongside the potential for lower oil prices [2][4] Group 3: Highway Transportation - The highway transportation sector is projected to maintain resilient traffic demand, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in passenger flow and a 2.9% increase in freight volume observed in April and May [3][4] - The ongoing optimization of debt and reduction in financial costs are expected to support steady growth in the performance of highway companies [3][4]