国泰海通｜固收：“大而美”如何影响美债：当前风险与后续影响

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent increase in the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, while alleviating immediate debt crisis concerns, may lead to short-term supply shocks in US Treasury bonds, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates [1][3][4] Group 2 - The "Great and Beautiful" Act passed by the US Congress aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to create a historical high in bond supply that the market needs to absorb [1][2] - Historical context shows that the US has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the debt crisis is more a product of political maneuvering rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [2][4] - The increase in the debt ceiling temporarily removes the risk of default, but it also leads to significant supply shocks in the Treasury market, with expectations of rising interest rates, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5% [3][4] - The ongoing trend of increasing fiscal deficits and debt expansion could accumulate risks that may spill over into the global financial market if not addressed fundamentally [4]