国泰海通 · 晨报0708｜固收、公用事业、中小与股权研究、地产

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act passed in the U.S. Congress will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to a significant surge in U.S. Treasury bond issuance, creating historical supply challenges for the market [3] - The act proposes a $4 trillion tax cut and a reduction of at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will result in an additional $2.8 trillion deficit over the same period [3][4] - Historical data shows that the U.S. has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the so-called "debt crisis" is primarily a political tool rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [4][6] Group 2 - The recent increase in the debt ceiling alleviates short-term default risks but introduces significant supply-side shocks to the Treasury market, with upward pressure on short-term Treasury yields [5] - The upcoming peak in Treasury maturities in 2025, combined with a growing fiscal deficit, will necessitate increased Treasury issuance, which is expected to drive up yields, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [5][6] - The long-term risks associated with deferred debt issues include rising interest rates, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and increased market risk premiums, which could spill over into the global financial market [6] Group 3 - The electricity market is experiencing upward pressure on prices, with expectations that electricity price increases may outpace coal price rises due to extreme weather conditions and increased demand for thermal power generation [11][12] - The national electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, with significant contributions from air conditioning loads, indicating a robust demand environment [12] - The introduction of new high-voltage direct current projects aims to enhance electricity supply and optimize pricing structures, reflecting a strategic shift in energy management [13]