汽车商业评论·2025-07-08 03:10Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) represents a fundamental ideological shift in U.S. economic and national security policy, reallocating resources and policy priorities from green energy and social welfare to defense, border security, and fossil fuel production [2][4]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The OBBB systematically abolishes or reduces numerous green energy projects established during the IRA era, including greenhouse gas reduction funds and clean heavy-duty vehicle credits, while injecting substantial new funding into the Department of Defense and traditional fossil fuel extraction [4][14]. - The bill is seen as a significant pivot in U.S. electric vehicle policy, with the cancellation of the $7,500 federal tax credit for new electric vehicles set to take effect on September 30, 2025, seven years earlier than previously planned [21][5]. - New vehicle registration fees have been introduced, with $250 for new cars and $100 for hybrid vehicles, impacting the demand for electric vehicles [23][24]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The OBBB combines large, permanent tax cuts with substantial, upfront government spending, relying entirely on new debt for funding, which could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [14]. - The bill aims to stimulate consumer demand through new tax incentives, including deductions for qualified tips and overtime pay, and enhanced standard deductions for seniors [9][8]. - The legislation allows for a maximum deduction of $10,000 on new vehicle loan interest for buyers of cars assembled in the U.S. from 2025 to 2028, incentivizing domestic production [31][33]. Group 3: Impact on the Automotive Industry - The cancellation of tax credits and the introduction of new fees are expected to negatively impact electric vehicle sales, with predictions of a significant drop in sales post-October 2025 [27][40]. - Traditional fuel vehicles may see a resurgence in competitiveness due to the removal of subsidies for electric vehicles, potentially delaying the overall electrification process [25][40]. - The bill's provisions may lead to a restructuring of the electric vehicle market, with established brands like Tesla facing profit margin pressures while startups reliant on subsidies may encounter severe financial challenges [41][39]. Group 4: Global Supply Chain Effects - The OBBB is likely to exacerbate regionalization trends in the global supply chain, as U.S. policies push companies to enhance domestic capabilities while still relying on imports for critical components [42][43]. - Automakers from countries like South Korea and Japan are already responding by increasing investments in U.S. production to qualify for the "American assembled" label [44]. Group 5: Controversy and Debate - The OBBB has sparked intense debate, with supporters arguing it provides relief for the middle class and traditional automakers, while critics warn it exacerbates fiscal deficits and undermines clean energy transitions [45][48]. - The automotive industry faces a dual challenge of short-term sales boosts against long-term sustainability and environmental goals, as highlighted by industry leaders [46][47].