美元指数创 50 年最差半年度表现！多重利空压顶 全球央行疯狂囤金 “去美元化”

Core Viewpoint - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and US Treasury bonds may lead to structural shocks in risk assets like stocks, especially as the dollar has experienced its weakest performance in decades [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 10.7% against other major currencies by June, marking the worst half-year performance since 1973 [1]. - Multiple negative factors, including worsening fiscal conditions and geopolitical tensions, are exerting downward pressure on the dollar, with expectations of further challenges in the second half of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Despite the dollar's depreciation, there has not been a significant impact on the US stock market, as over 40% of S&P 500 companies' revenues come from overseas, making a weaker dollar beneficial for US exports [2]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with projected fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion by 2025, raising concerns about the dollar's dominance [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are increasing gold reserves, with monthly purchases reaching 24 tons, reflecting a strategic intent to diversify away from the dollar amid ongoing trade and fiscal issues [2]. - The price of gold has seen its highest increase since 1979 in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as historical trends show that the dollar and US Treasury yields can rise during previous easing cycles [3]. - Divergent views exist among Wall Street institutions regarding the dollar's future, with some emphasizing its irreplaceable role in global trade and finance, while others predict a slow "de-dollarization" process due to the shortcomings of alternative currencies [3]. - Despite recent fluctuations, underlying risks such as debt crises and policy uncertainties continue to exert pressure on the dollar [3].