连跌4-5年，白酒、光伏行业何时迎来反转？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].