半导体芯闻·2025-07-08 10:23Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered the most exciting technological transformation of this generation, with semiconductor companies leading the innovation wave. AI accelerators for large language models are expected to account for 20% of the total semiconductor market in 2024, with this share projected to grow further. Nvidia is at the core of the AI boom, and both Nvidia and AMD are expected to perform well in the AI sector despite challenges in the Chinese market due to U.S. restrictions [1][20][16]. Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor demand is experiencing a broad surge, with digital semiconductors for AI leading the trend, while automotive and industrial semiconductors are gradually rebounding [8]. - Global semiconductor trade data indicates strong revenue growth driven by AI, with a projected 23% increase in chip industry sales in the first half of 2025 [9]. AI Semiconductor Demand - Nvidia's AI accelerators are projected to account for 20% of semiconductor revenue in 2024, with significant growth expected in 2025. Despite losing over $10.5 billion in revenue from the Chinese market, Nvidia's sales remain strong in non-China markets [20][16]. - Data center spending is expected to account for 25% of semiconductor end-market demand in 2024, with Nvidia maintaining a leading position in AI infrastructure [17]. Analog/Mixed-Signal Semiconductor Outlook - The severe cyclical downturn in the analog/mixed-signal semiconductor sector is nearing its end, with inventory levels dropping to a point where reordering is necessary. The long-term trend of increasing chip content in automotive and industrial applications remains solid [2][45]. - The median valuation of analog/mixed-signal chip manufacturers is considered undervalued by 13%, while digital chip stocks are undervalued by 3% [5]. Automotive Semiconductor Market - Automotive semiconductors are projected to account for 12% of chip industry revenue in 2024, with an increase in chip content per vehicle, especially in electric vehicles [49][53]. - The Chinese electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 25% in 2024, further driving demand for automotive semiconductors [53]. Industrial Semiconductor Market - Industrial semiconductors, which include military, aerospace, and medical applications, are expected to recover from a cyclical low, despite concerns over tariffs [56]. - The revenue growth of industrial semiconductors is anticipated to outpace U.S. manufacturing activity due to increasing chip content in devices [58]. Wireless Semiconductor Market - The wireless semiconductor market, primarily used in smartphones, is recovering from overordering during the pandemic, with a projected 28% market share in 2024 [36]. - The growth of wireless semiconductors is expected to be modest, with concerns over tariffs and a lack of a strong rebound in the consumer electronics sector [60]. Financial Performance and Margins - Nvidia's gross margin remains unmatched, peaking at 78%, while AMD's gross margin is gradually improving, expected to reach around 40% due to market restrictions [41][42]. - The gross margins for analog/mixed-signal semiconductors are anticipated to rebound as revenue growth resumes following the cyclical downturn [62].