关税暂缓期推至8月，中国政策加码概率走低

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies under the Trump administration, highlighting the implications for various countries and industries, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the potential impacts on exports and economic growth. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations and Policies - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to August 1, with President Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on imports from various countries, including Japan, which could reach 30-35% [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. House aims to reduce taxes and government spending, which is seen as part of Trump's economic strategy to boost domestic demand while increasing government revenue through tariffs [2][3] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan, the EU, and India are ongoing, indicating a complex international trade landscape [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Exports and Industries - The article notes that the tariff situation has led to a surge in exports from China, with a 6% growth rate in exports from January to May, surpassing the previous year's growth [4] - Companies are experiencing pressure to expedite production due to uncertainty surrounding future tariffs, particularly in the electronic paper industry, which has seen significant demand from clients [5][6] - The "rush to export" phenomenon is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that approximately $24 billion in exports were preemptively shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that while there has been a temporary boost in exports, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential economic pressures [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown signs of recovery, but new export orders remain below the growth threshold, indicating persistent challenges in the export sector [10][11] - The article suggests that the global trade environment will continue to impact China's economy, with a need for strategic policy adjustments to navigate the uncertainties ahead [12][13]