华尔街见闻·2025-07-08 10:44Group 1: Core Views - Deutsche Bank believes that the strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until 2026, supported by four consecutive years of supply deficits and structural demand [1][2]. - The ongoing fundamental shortage of platinum is expected to eventually reflect in prices, although the exact timing is uncertain [3]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Demand for platinum in the automotive catalyst sector remains robust compared to levels from 2018 to 2022, with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) showing stronger sales than battery electric vehicles (BEVs), potentially slowing the decline in demand for platinum group metal catalysts [4]. - Deutsche Bank notes a shift in the platinum landscape over the past two months, driven by trends such as the substitution of gold with platinum in jewelry manufacturing, rising platinum leasing rates indicating physical shortages, and the need to replenish industrial inventories due to years of deficits [5]. Group 3: Price Forecast - Based on optimistic expectations, Deutsche Bank forecasts that platinum prices could reach $1,550 per ounce by 2026, indicating potential upside from its base forecast of $1,400 per ounce [6]. Group 4: Diverging Views from Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in platinum prices to $1,280 per ounce is primarily driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements, suggesting that a price correction is inevitable once speculative enthusiasm wanes [8]. - Goldman Sachs highlights the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers, who account for about 60% of global new platinum supply, indicating that their buying behavior is influenced by price fluctuations, which has already suppressed jewelry and investment demand since mid-May [9]. Group 5: Automotive Industry Demand Discrepancies - There is a significant divergence in outlook regarding automotive industry demand between Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs emphasizes a structural decline in automotive demand due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, while Deutsche Bank maintains a more optimistic view, suggesting that platinum demand for automotive catalysts remains high compared to 2018-2022 levels [10]. - On the supply side, Goldman Sachs expects stable or moderate growth in global platinum supply unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, while Deutsche Bank acknowledges seasonal factors affecting supply but believes the weak performance in the first quarter may be temporary [10].