美联储研究报告：中期内利率降至零的风险不可忽略

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate to return to zero, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future interest rates and the implications for monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - Research indicates a 9% probability that the federal funds rate will hit the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years, with current interest rate uncertainty being a significant factor [4]. - The likelihood of rates returning to zero within the next two years is estimated at 1% [6]. - The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25%-5.5% from March 2022 to July 2023, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Market discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts and the terminal rate level, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a possible rate cut in September [8]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3%-3.25%, which remains above the zero lower bound [9]. - The chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs estimates a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with further cuts expected in October and December [8][10].