研客专栏 | 黎明前的黑夜：近端承压，远景光明——多晶硅行情展望

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently trading on expectations of supply-side regulation, with strong policies leading to price increases from silicon material manufacturers, which in turn amplifies bullish sentiment. Confidence in the current round of supply-side regulation is expected to continue, with anticipated actions such as capacity mergers, elimination of outdated capacity, and regulation of low-priced products [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak realities, as increased production from major manufacturers in July and continued supply pressure in August may lead to a return to inventory accumulation for polysilicon in the second half of the year. The bargaining power remains with downstream players, creating uncertainty about whether they can accept price increases from silicon manufacturers [1] - A strategy focusing on cross-commodity hedging is recommended, as additional bullish stimuli are needed for polysilicon futures to continue rising. The current market does not show fundamental improvements or confirmation of timing, suggesting that single-direction strategies may carry increased volatility risks [1] Supply Capacity Dynamics - As of now, China's nominal polysilicon capacity stands at 3.084 million tons, with an additional planned capacity of 2.188 million tons. Various projects are experiencing delays, such as the 100,000-ton output from Hongli in Qinghai, which is expected in mid-July, while other projects have been postponed [3] - The global polysilicon production for July is projected at 109,100 tons, reflecting an 11.94% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, there are no significant recovery actions observed in Xinjiang's production capacity, and the overall supply pressure is expected to persist [3] Market Feedback and Price Trends - The polysilicon market is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced production from downstream sectors, leading to a forecast of inventory accumulation in the second half of 2025. Current inventory levels are expected to rise to 4-5 months [3] - In July, the global silicon wafer production was reported at 51.84 GW, a decrease of 10.98% quarter-on-quarter, with prices for various types of silicon wafers showing declines [5] - The battery cell production for July is estimated at 57.12 GW, with inventory levels rising rapidly due to weakened demand. The price for battery cells has also decreased, indicating ongoing market challenges [5] Future Projections - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 579.17 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. However, the Chinese market is projected to see a decline in new installations due to demand being pulled forward earlier in the year [5] - The European market shows signs of recovery, with an expected annual installation of 70.65 GW, while the U.S. market is anticipated to face challenges due to policy changes affecting new installations [5]