国泰海通｜煤炭：新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "430" and "531" policies will lead to a decrease in the profitability of new energy projects, resulting in a slowdown in new energy development after the initial rush in early 2025. The marginal impact on coal consumption is expected to diminish, with a potential turning point for coal consumption around 2027 [1]. Group 1: New Energy Development - Over the past decade, new energy has experienced rapid growth, significantly impacting thermal power demand. By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China is projected to reach 1.4 billion kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. The share of thermal power generation capacity has decreased from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [2]. - The rapid growth of new energy has led to a notable decline in the growth rate of thermal power generation, which is now lagging behind the overall electricity consumption growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "430" policy highlights the increasing pressure on distributed solar energy consumption, with some provinces halting new registrations for distributed solar projects. The profitability of these projects has become highly uncertain, ending the previous model of easy profits from simply installing power stations [3]. - The "531" policy, effective from January 2025, will push new energy into market trading, with settlement prices expected to decrease significantly compared to coal-based benchmark prices. This is likely to result in a substantial decline in new installations of distributed solar energy starting in the second half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new energy sector is entering a new phase, with the peak of new energy installations likely occurring in 2024. The pressure on thermal power is expected to be greatest in 2025, but with steady growth in electricity demand driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and AI, the pressure on coal consumption is anticipated to ease in 2026, with a potential upward turning point in 2027 [4].