【中国宏桥（1378.HK）】高分红一体化龙头业绩同比高增，西芒杜铁矿项目有望提供利润新增点——动态跟踪报告（王招华/马俊）

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to exceed market expectations with a projected net profit increase of approximately 35% for the first half of 2025, reaching around 12.36 billion yuan [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's strong performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to the increase in prices of aluminum alloy and alumina products compared to the same period in 2024, along with a rise in sales volume [4]. - The average price of aluminum (A00) in H1 2025 was 20,317 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the average price of domestic alumina was 3,389.9 yuan/ton, down 3.4% year-on-year, and the price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) was 675.67 yuan/ton, down 22.8% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Resource and Growth Potential - The company has a stable supply of raw materials, with joint ventures in Guinea for bauxite mining and port operations. The Simandou iron ore project is expected to be delivered by the end of 2025 and exported in 2026, potentially enhancing the company's investment returns [5]. Group 3: Industry Position and Shareholder Returns - The company has an integrated aluminum industry chain with a total alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons. The company has increased its dividend payouts, with a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share in 2025 and a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is moving closer to being included in the national carbon market, which may lead to increased cost pressures for companies using thermal power for aluminum production, thereby encouraging energy-saving measures and price premiums for hydropower aluminum [7].