【银行】6月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节性修复——流动性观察第113期（王一峰/赵晨阳）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected trends in loan issuance, social financing, and monetary supply in June, highlighting a seasonal increase in credit and social financing due to government bond issuance and stable credit conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Loan Issuance - Loan issuance has slowed down since Q2 due to insufficient effective demand and government debt replacement, with June expected to see a seasonal increase in loan issuance, projecting an additional RMB 2.3-2.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 200-400 billion [2][3]. - The corporate sector is expected to remain a stabilizing force, with short-term loans increasing seasonally and medium to long-term loans growing steadily [3]. Group 2: Social Financing - Social financing is projected to increase by RMB 4-4.2 trillion in June, with a growth rate of approximately 8.9%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [4]. - The breakdown of social financing includes an estimated RMB 2.5-2.7 trillion in new loans, with government bonds contributing RMB 1.4 trillion to net financing, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 560 billion [4]. Group 3: Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to be slightly revised upwards in June, with M1 growth projected at around 3% and M2 growth expected to exceed 8% [5]. - Factors influencing these changes include seasonal shifts in government spending and the movement of deposits between different types of banks, particularly in response to recent interest rate adjustments [5].