关税扰动铜价波动加大：申万期货早间评论-20250709

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on copper prices and other commodities, highlighting the volatility in the market and the mixed responses from various countries [1][2][16]. Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices fell sharply after the domestic night session, with expectations of a lower opening in the domestic market due to Trump's tariff statements on copper [2][17]. - Domestic downstream demand for copper remains stable, with positive growth in the power sector and automotive sales, while the real estate sector continues to show weakness [2][17]. - The overall processing fees for copper concentrate are low, which may challenge smelting output [2][17]. Group 2: Shipping Industry - The European shipping index (EC) showed a strong performance, with the August contract closing at 2006.2 points, up 7.16% [3][29]. - Shipping companies like MSC and EMC maintained their rates from the first half of the month, while others like CMA opted for slight increases, indicating a gradual rise in shipping rates [3][29]. - The market sentiment has stabilized as long-term contract volumes have improved loading rates, with expectations for the upcoming August shipping rates [3][29]. Group 3: Coal Market - Coal production has rebounded this week, with downstream inventory replenishment and upstream destocking occurring [3][25]. - The Shanxi region is gradually resuming production, and the supply pressure remains, with market focus on potential policy changes regarding the coal industry [3][25]. - Iron and steel production remains high, providing support for demand in the coal market, although a weak outlook is anticipated for the dual coal products [3][25]. Group 4: International and Domestic News - The article mentions international tensions, including airstrikes by Israel in Lebanon, which may have broader implications for market stability [4]. - Domestic developments include the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's progress in launching platinum and palladium futures, indicating ongoing innovation in the commodities market [5]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations, with the USDA reporting a lower-than-expected good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans [26][27]. - Domestic supply remains ample, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, leading to a forecast of continued volatility in the soybean meal market [26][27]. Group 6: Energy Market - The article notes a rise in crude oil prices, with the SC night session up 1.26%, amid ongoing negotiations between Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. regarding tariffs [10]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration has adjusted its global oil production growth forecast, indicating a stable outlook for oil demand [10]. Group 7: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing high-level consolidation, with the Trump administration's tariff announcements impacting market sentiment [16]. - The U.S. job market data shows stronger-than-expected employment growth, which may influence Federal Reserve policies and subsequently affect precious metal prices [16]. Group 8: Other Metals - Zinc prices have shown an upward trend, supported by improving processing fees and stable demand from the automotive and construction sectors [18]. - Aluminum prices are fluctuating due to a balance of supply and demand, with current production levels remaining high [19][20]. Group 9: Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate supply has decreased, with production figures showing a reduction in output, while demand remains stable [22]. - Market sentiment is improving, but there are concerns about potential price pressures from upstream production [22]. Group 10: Steel Market - The steel market is facing a dual weak supply and demand situation, with ongoing export pressures from tariffs and seasonal demand fluctuations [24]. - The overall market remains resilient, but future demand is expected to weaken, particularly for hot-rolled products [24].