疯狂内卷的SiC：囚徒困境与破局之道

Core Viewpoint - The SiC market is experiencing a price war driven by overcapacity and short-term capital interests, leading to a "prisoner's dilemma" situation among manufacturers, which threatens the long-term sustainability of the industry [3][5][21]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global SiC market is valued at approximately $3.5 billion (around 25 billion RMB), with automotive applications accounting for 72% of the market share [3]. - The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, potentially exceeding $10.3 billion by 2030 [3]. - Despite domestic manufacturers holding over 30% of the global material market, their total output is only about $400 million compared to $3.6 billion from overseas [3]. Group 2: Causes of Price War - Overcapacity is a significant issue, with many domestic manufacturers investing heavily in production facilities without sufficient quality control, leading to a price war [4][8]. - The price war is characterized as a zero-sum game, where companies lower prices to gain market share, ultimately harming the entire industry [5]. - The influx of internet capital has led to a focus on short-term gains, pushing quality manufacturers out of the market, exemplifying the "bad money drives out good" phenomenon [7]. Group 3: Consequences of Price War - The price war results in a "tightening spell" of sunk costs, making it difficult for companies to exit the market without incurring significant losses [8]. - Companies are sacrificing profit margins and brand integrity in pursuit of market share, which could lead to long-term damage to the industry [10]. Group 4: Paths to Resolution - The industry can learn from Japanese companies by focusing on unique offerings rather than competing for the top position [13]. - Expanding product offerings from individual components to integrated systems can enhance value and customer loyalty [15]. - Investing in next-generation materials and improving SiC production processes are essential for future competitiveness [18]. - Establishing industry standards can help regulate competition and protect quality manufacturers [19]. - Government intervention is necessary to guide the industry towards healthy competition and sustainable growth [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the SiC industry lies in companies that prioritize technological innovation and efficient operations over short-term speculative gains [21][24]. - Companies with strong core technologies, like STMicroelectronics, which holds a 27.5% market share with $1.14 billion in revenue, are better positioned for success [22]. - Sustainable development will require a shift from "burning money" to creating value through effective management and differentiation [23].