汇率双周报 | 弱美元与“去美元化”是两码事！（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, indicating a cyclical rather than a structural trend [2][4][12] - As of July 4, the US dollar index fell below 97, marking a 4.7% decline from its peak on May 12, with significant depreciation against major currencies [6][82] - The decline in the dollar is also linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar [4][24][86] Group 2 - The narrative of "de-dollarization" has not accelerated in recent years, with the dollar's share of global reserves only decreasing from 55% in 2016 to 52% in 2024 when excluding China [3][42][44] - The correlation between the US GDP share and the dollar index is weak when excluding valuation effects, suggesting that fundamental trends may have limited impact on the dollar's value [3][30][36] - Recent capital flows indicate a temporary flight from US assets, but foreign investment in US Treasuries has stabilized since mid-May, questioning the sustainability of this trend [3][54][55] Group 3 - Potential scenarios for a strengthening dollar include rising inflation pressures leading to delayed interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in the dollar index [5][65][88] - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" may boost US economic growth, potentially leading to a stronger dollar as financial conditions ease [5][78][88] - High levels of short positions against the dollar may create conditions for a short-term rebound, as seen in historical patterns when similar positions were reached [5][72][88]