瑞·达利欧：未来5～10年，所有秩序将发生巨大变化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights from Ray Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail: Big Cycles," which explores the underlying forces that control national economic destinies and the implications of debt cycles on global power dynamics [1][21]. Group 1: Big Debt Cycle and Its Evolution - The big debt cycle refers to the accumulation of debt assets and liabilities over a long period, leading to uncontrollable debt levels and potential national bankruptcy [3][4]. - The cycle typically consists of five stages: 1. Sound Money Stage: Low net debt levels and stable currency, allowing for productive debt growth [4]. 2. Debt Bubble Stage: Abundant and cheap funding drives economic expansion, leading to rising demand and prices [4]. 3. Peak Stage: The bubble bursts, causing simultaneous contraction in debt, credit, and the economy [4]. 4. Deleveraging Stage: Painful adjustments align debt levels with income, returning to sustainability [4]. 5. Debt Crisis Dissipation: A new balance is achieved, initiating a new cycle [4]. - Countries like the U.S. and others are currently in the late stages of the debt cycle, with a 65% chance of significant debt restructuring within five years and an 80% chance within ten years [3][4]. Group 2: Five Forces and Internal-External Order - The big debt cycle is one of five interconnected forces that drive the transition from an "old order" to a "new order," including domestic political harmony and conflict, international geopolitical dynamics, natural forces, and technological breakthroughs [8][9]. - Internal order is crucial as governments may implement austerity measures, tax increases, or currency devaluation to manage debt, potentially leading to political crises and social unrest [9]. - External order, particularly the stability of the global monetary system and geopolitical relationships, significantly impacts national power. The U.S. has historically benefited from its reserve currency status, but this is threatened by rising debt levels and geopolitical tensions [10][11]. Group 3: Impact of Technological Revolution - Technological advancements have historically improved living standards and military capabilities but can also lead to significant internal conflicts if they rely on unsustainable credit expansion [12][13]. - The competition between the U.S. and China in technology, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and semiconductor production, will significantly influence their economic and military strengths [14][15]. - The next five years are expected to see substantial technological progress, with the potential for revolutionary changes driven by creative and practical applications of new technologies [14]. Group 4: Future of the Big Cycle - The current big cycle, which began in 1945, is nearing its end, suggesting imminent significant changes in global order, including potential conflicts and transformations in monetary and internal orders [10][11][16]. - The article emphasizes the importance of cooperation among nations to address challenges and seize opportunities, suggesting that the outcomes will depend on how societies choose to interact [15][18].