研报 | 预估3Q25 NAND Flash合约价季增5%至10%，手机需求弱抑制eMMC、UFS涨幅

Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing improved supply-demand balance due to production cuts and inventory reduction, with expectations for price increases in various segments in Q3 2025 [1][4][5]. NAND Flash Market Overview - The NAND Flash market has seen a significant improvement in supply-demand balance following production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Major manufacturers are shifting production capacity to high-margin products, leading to a reduction in market supply [1]. Price Forecasts - Average contract prices for NAND Flash are expected to increase by 5% to 10% in Q3 2025, with specific segments showing varied growth rates [2]. - eMMC and UFS products are projected to have limited price increases due to uncertain smartphone demand, with expected growth of 0% to 5% [2][6]. Client SSD Market Dynamics - The Client SSD market is experiencing inventory replenishment, driven by better-than-expected inventory reduction in the first half of the year [4]. - Factors such as the end of Windows 10 support, new CPU launches, and demand from Chinese DeepSeek all contribute to increased Client SSD demand, with price forecasts of a 3% to 8% increase in Q3 2025 [4][5]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for Enterprise SSDs is expected to grow due to rising orders from North American general-purpose servers and strong orders from Chinese clients [5]. - However, supply chain challenges may hinder delivery capabilities, leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% for Enterprise SSDs in Q3 2025 [5]. Mobile Product Segment - The demand for eMMC and UFS products is expected to remain flat, with eMMC prices projected to increase by 0% to 5% due to sufficient supply and rising costs for module manufacturers [6]. - UFS demand is also limited by uncertain smartphone market conditions, with a similar price forecast of 0% to 5% increase [6]. Wafer Supply and Pricing - The overall NAND Flash production is declining, and manufacturers are focusing on high-margin products, leading to an expected price increase of 8% to 13% for wafers in Q3 2025 [6].