万字思考创新药估值

Overview - The article discusses the valuation of innovative drugs, focusing on the choice between absolute and relative valuation methods, and the factors influencing these valuations, such as target patient population, market share, and drug pricing [2]. Valuation Methods - The innovative drug industry is characterized by patent protection periods, which allow for significant pricing power and excess profits during the patent period, but face steep competition post-patent expiration [4]. - The absolute valuation method, specifically the DCF model, is deemed unsuitable for innovative drugs due to the high uncertainty in predicting revenues, profit margins, and capital expenditures [5]. - Relative valuation methods such as P/B, P/E, P/DCF, and P/S are explored, with P/S being highlighted as the most stable and practical for innovative drug companies due to the predictability of sales [6][9]. Commercial Forecasting Model - A robust commercial model is essential for predicting sales, with methodologies like those used by Frost & Sullivan being noted for their representativeness [11]. Patient Population - The starting point for predicting sales is the patient population, which can be assessed through prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence reflects the total number of existing cases, while incidence measures new cases over a specific period [15][16]. - Disease subtyping is crucial for accurate market predictions, as different subtypes may respond to different treatments [17]. - Treatment rates indicate the proportion of patients receiving effective treatment, which can vary based on economic and healthcare access factors [20]. Market Share - Market share predictions depend on several factors, including target competition, real-world efficacy of drugs, treatment sequencing, commercialization capabilities, and accessibility policies [21]. - The competitive strength of drug targets and the real-world efficacy of drugs significantly influence market share [23][25]. - The order of drug usage and expert consensus play a role in determining market share, with first-line treatments generally being preferred [27][29]. - Commercialization capabilities vary among companies, impacting the sales outcomes of similar drugs [30]. Drug Pricing - Drug pricing is influenced by the initial price at launch, pricing in different countries, and price changes over time [35]. - The starting price is typically based on the annual cost of similar drugs, clinical benefits, and development costs [36]. - Price differences across countries highlight the importance of market access, with the U.S. generally having higher drug prices compared to other regions [37]. - Over time, drug prices may decrease in markets like China due to negotiations, while they may increase in the U.S. due to favorable protections for innovative drugs [39]. Product Sales Curve - The sales curve of a drug typically follows a pattern of market introduction, rapid growth, maturity, and decline, with effective commercialization strategies leading to faster growth [40]. - Historical data indicates that the median time to peak sales is approximately six years [42]. - Different drug types exhibit varying sales growth patterns, with small molecules often experiencing rapid rises and falls, while biologics tend to have steadier growth [44][45]. Data Objectivity/Uncertainty - The objectivity and uncertainty of data can vary significantly, especially in high-uncertainty scenarios where subjective assumptions may dominate [46].