【公募基金】国内主题轮动加剧，基金组合如何应对？—— 基金配置策略报告（2025年7月期）

Market Overview - The equity market showed an overall upward trend in June 2025, with the performance of various indices such as the Maned Active Equity Fund Index, Maned Stock Fund Total Index, and Maned Mixed Fund Total Index recording increases of 3.63%, 4.26%, and 3.59% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a clear structural trend, with the Maned Bond Fund Index achieving a positive return of 0.48%, while the Maned Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Fund Index and the Maned Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index rose by 0.28% and 0.18% respectively [2] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index recorded a gain of 3.51%, driven by the upward trend in equity markets and rising valuations of convertible bonds [2] Equity Allocation Strategy - With the easing of Middle Eastern tensions, market focus is shifting towards domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - High-performing sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, leading new consumption brands, and AI computing chains are expected to maintain strong momentum [3] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of fund managers who can track industry trends and suggests increasing the proportion of valuation-based sector rotation fund managers [3] - Key themes to watch include opportunities in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as military and "anti-involution" themes [3] Fixed Income Allocation Strategy - Despite a favorable overall environment, the downward trend in bond yields remains unchanged, with government bond rates at relatively low levels [4] - The market is expected to continue experiencing low-level fluctuations due to short-term sentiment changes and market dynamics [4] - A balanced allocation between interest rate bonds and credit bonds is recommended, with a slightly longer duration than the market average [4] Fixed Income Plus Fund Strategy - The strategy has been refined into low, medium, and high volatility fixed income plus categories, each with optimized indices [5] - The bond segment focuses on high-grade credit bonds while avoiding lower-rated credits, combining them with interest rate bond trading strategies [5] - The equity segment maintains a dividend and thematic rotation approach, with low volatility indices incorporating more active bond market opportunities [5] - Medium volatility indices introduce a higher proportion of dividend strategy-based assets, while high volatility indices focus on stable dividend funds with growth-oriented allocations [5]