量子位·2025-07-09 09:06Core Viewpoint - Geoffrey Hinton, known as the "Godfather of AI," expresses regret over his life's work in AI, highlighting the potential risks and consequences of AI development, urging humanity to reconsider its direction [2][4][17]. Group 1: Hinton's Background and Career - Hinton joined Google to support his son, who has learning disabilities, and has since become a prominent figure in AI, winning prestigious awards like the Nobel Prize in Physics and the Turing Award [3][13][15]. - He initially focused on neural networks, a choice that was not widely accepted at the time, but has proven to be correct as AI has advanced significantly [9][10]. Group 2: AI Risks Identified by Hinton - Hinton categorizes AI risks into short-term and long-term threats, emphasizing the need for awareness and caution [21]. - Short-term risks include a dramatic increase in cyberattacks, with a reported 12,200% rise from 2023 to 2024, facilitated by AI technologies [22][25]. - The potential for individuals with basic biological knowledge to create highly infectious and deadly viruses using AI tools is a significant concern [26]. - AI's ability to manipulate personal habits and decisions through data analysis poses a risk of creating echo chambers and deepening societal divides [29][30]. Group 3: Long-term Risks and Predictions - Hinton warns of the emergence of superintelligent AI that could surpass human intelligence within 20 years, with a predicted extinction risk of 10%-20% for humanity [32][35]. - He compares humanity's relationship with superintelligent AI to that of chickens to humans, suggesting that humans may become subservient to their creations [37]. - The potential for widespread unemployment due to AI replacing cognitive jobs is highlighted, with recent layoffs at Microsoft exemplifying this trend [39][41]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Future - Hinton suggests that individuals consider careers in trades, such as plumbing, which are less likely to be replaced by AI [43][47]. - He advocates for increased investment in AI safety research and stricter regulatory measures to manage AI development responsibly [44][54]. - The importance of fostering unique personal skills and interests is emphasized as a way to thrive in an AI-dominated future [48][49].