【广发宏观郭磊】6月PPI低于预期的原因

Core Viewpoint - The June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -3.3%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI remains at -1.38%, consistent with May and at a low since February 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI data met expectations, with high-frequency data estimating a 0.14% year-on-year increase, while the PPI was significantly lower than the expected -3.0% [1][5]. - The PPI showed a base effect advantage with a 0.2% month-on-month recovery, but year-on-year figures continued to decline, indicating potential discrepancies in high-frequency data representation [1][7]. Price Movements in Industries - In June, the PPI for coal processing fell by 5.5% month-on-month, and the prices in coal mining and black metal industries also decreased, reflecting weaker performance compared to high-frequency data [1][7]. - The durable consumer goods segment of PPI fell from 0.1% to -0.1%, with notable declines in the computer and textile sectors, possibly influenced by tariff uncertainties and the "618" e-commerce promotions [2][8]. Positive Trends in PPI - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2%, indicating initial positive effects of the "anti-involution" trend in production [3][9]. - The prices for complete vehicles and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting a narrowing of year-on-year declines in these categories [10]. Notable CPI Details - Key details in CPI include a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in alcohol prices, a shift in clothing prices from increase to decrease during the "618" sales, and a 0.4% decline in transportation tools, indicating ongoing price reductions in the automotive retail sector [4][10]. - Medical service prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of 0.7%, while pork prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, although a rebound was noted post-June 26 [4][10]. Overall Price Stability and Future Outlook - The current task of stabilizing prices remains significant, with no signs of a turning point in the simulated deflation index. Various factors, including supply-demand fundamentals and external demand fluctuations, are influencing prices [4][13]. - Positive signs include a moderate rise in core CPI year-on-year, improvements in coal and meat prices since July, and initial positive signals in automotive manufacturing prices [4][13]. Key future indicators will be the recovery of local project starts and the continued effectiveness of the "anti-involution" trend [4][13].