国泰海通｜公用事业：火电业绩加速修复，水风光或承压——25Q2E业绩前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the decline in electricity prices is narrowing while the decline in coal prices is expanding, leading to further growth in thermal power performance compared to Q1. However, the performance of clean energy may be under pressure due to overall resource scarcity. The report maintains a "buy" rating for the sector [1]. Group 1: Electricity and Coal Prices - In Q2 2025, the average electricity price in Guangdong was 0.374 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.046 yuan/kWh year-on-year, while the average coal price was 633 yuan/ton, down 214 yuan/ton year-on-year [2]. - The national electricity generation in April and May was 449.1 billion kWh and 461.5 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year change of -2.3% and +1.2%, respectively, with thermal power growth turning positive in May [2]. Group 2: Hydropower Performance - In Q2 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 1.2 and 1.0 million cubic meters per second, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% and 17.1%, respectively [3]. - The national electricity generation from hydropower in April and May was 78.6 billion kWh and 99.1 billion kWh, with year-on-year changes of -6.5% and -14.3% [3]. Group 3: New Energy and Wind Power - The new energy sector saw significant installations in April and May, with wind power and photovoltaic capacity additions of 32.12 million kW and 138.13 million kW, respectively, marking increases of 2.77 million kW and 10.72 million kW year-on-year [3]. - Wind power utilization hours in April and May were 374 hours, down 6 hours year-on-year, while photovoltaic utilization hours were 234 hours, down 37 hours year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Nuclear Power Developments - In April, the State Council approved 10 new nuclear power units, indicating a normalization of approvals [4]. - In Q2 2025, nuclear power generation in China was 50.4 billion kWh, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [4].