中金：中国澳门新增长前景

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the Macau gaming industry, raising the total gaming revenue forecast for 2025 to a 7% year-on-year growth, reaching 83% of the 2019 level [1][46]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The company has increased the 2025 EBITDA forecast by 3%, expecting a 9% year-on-year growth, recovering to 89% of the 2019 level [2][46]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching $2.098 billion, which is 87% of the Q2 2019 level [2]. Market Dynamics - Macau is gradually transforming into a travel destination centered around entertainment performances, which may help attract more tourists [4]. - The increase in rebate expenses is expected to enhance the market size of the Macau gaming industry, with a focus on absolute EBITDA levels [4]. - The depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may boost tourism demand from neighboring Asian countries [4][26]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, Macau achieved a total gaming revenue of MOP 61.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.0%, recovering to 83.3% of the Q2 2019 level [6]. - The company expects mass gaming revenue to grow by 2.7% year-on-year, while VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 26.6% year-on-year [6][9]. Factors Driving Growth - The strong performance in Q2 2025 is attributed to popular non-gaming activities attracting tourists, the opening of new hotels, and the relaxation of rebate strategies by gaming operators [7]. - The company notes that the focus on hosting various entertainment events can drive repeat visits and attract new customers to Macau [19]. Strategic Adjustments - Sands China has shifted its market strategy to focus on EBITDA returns rather than restrictive profit margins, which is expected to drive domestic demand [33]. - The company has increased its reinvestment rate since May 2025, which is anticipated to enhance market scale [34]. Hotel and Capacity Insights - By mid-2025, all new properties and renovation projects in Macau are expected to be operational, with a total of 45,200 hotel rooms and an occupancy rate of 88% [43]. - Sands China, with over 12,000 hotel rooms, is positioned to leverage its capacity to attract overseas customers, particularly from Asia [41].