CPI由降转涨：申万期货早间评论-20250710

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in China's CPI and PPI, highlighting a shift from a declining trend to an increase in CPI after four months, with core CPI reaching a 14-month high. It also notes the mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates due to differing expectations about tariffs and inflation [1]. Economic Indicators - In June, China's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline. Core CPI increased by 0.7%, the highest in 14 months [1]. - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. Commodity Market Insights - The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise, particularly in the chemical sector, with notable increases in rubber and black coal prices [1]. - Rubber prices are supported by supply constraints due to weather conditions, while the market anticipates weaker demand in the summer [2][12]. - Focus on the coal market indicates a rebound in production and continued inventory replenishment, with attention on policy developments regarding the coal industry's internal competition [2][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market - Glass futures are stabilizing below 1,000, with a slight inventory reduction noted. The market is focusing on supply-side adjustments and the impact of domestic consumption recovery [3][15]. - Soda ash inventory increased slightly, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels due to poor production profits [3][15]. International Trade Developments - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1, 2025, leading to a surge in copper futures prices [4]. - The U.S. continues to engage in trade negotiations, with potential impacts on various commodities and market sentiment [4][16]. Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure due to favorable weather conditions in the U.S. and ongoing trade disputes, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [24]. - Oilseed prices are expected to remain high due to a decrease in palm oil production in Southeast Asia, despite fluctuations in the market [25]. Metal Market Overview - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to stable demand in the power sector and ongoing trade tensions [17]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic demand and supply recovery [18]. Black Metal Sector - Iron ore demand remains resilient, supported by steel production, although global shipments are expected to increase in the second half of the year [21]. - Steel market dynamics indicate a balance between supply and demand, with seasonal factors affecting construction-related demand [22].