特朗普重启关税战：投资者们准备好了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].